This weekend a UK Government report called Yellowhammer was leaked to The Sunday Times. The report described what the government thinks will happen in case of a No Deal Brexit. They are expecting significant disruption and shortages. The Guardian posted a good and concise overview of the main points in the report:
Transport disruption
• 50%-85% of lorries travelling across the Channel may not be ready for French customs.• The worst disruption to the short Channel crossings might last three months, although disruption could continue much longer.
• In a reasonable worst-case scenario, HGVs could face a maximum delay of 1½-2½ days before being able to cross the border.
Immigration changes
• EU likely to have increased immigration checks at border posts. This may lead to passenger delays at St Pancras, Cheriton (Channel tunnel) and Dover.Medicines
• With significant disruption lasting up to six months across the Channel, this will have an impact on the supply of medicines and medical supplies unless there is mitigation via other sources.Food and water
• The supply of certain types of fresh food will decrease. Critical elements of the food supply chain (such as ingredients, chemicals and packaging) may be in short supply. In combination, these two factors will not cause an overall shortage of food in the UK but will reduce availability and choice and increase the price, which will affect vulnerable groups.• Public water services are likely to remain largely unaffected, thanks to actions now being taken by water companies. The most significant single risk is a failure in the chemicals supply chain. The likelihood of this is considered low.
Fuel
• Tariffs make UK petrol exports to the EU uncompetitive. Industry had plans to mitigate the impact on refinery margins and profitability, but UK government policy to set petrol import tariffs at 0% inadvertently undermines these plans. This leads to big financial losses and the closure of two refineries (which are converted to import terminals) with about 2,000 direct job losses.Northern Ireland
• The UK would impose the “no new checks with limited exceptions” model announced on 13 March … but this is likely to prove unsustainable because of economic, legal and biosecurity risks.
Are You Prepared?
A few headlines of the past months:
UK businesses urged to step up preparations for no-deal Brexit
Four Out of Five Belgian Companies Aren’t Prepared for Brexit
German businesses “not prepared” for Brexit
Are Swedish businesses ready for a hard Brexit? Not really, survey suggests
Unprepared companies face serious problems after no deal Brexit – Dutch PM Rutte
For those that want to be sure they are ready we have made an 18 step plan that will take you through the preparations. Check this page if you’d like to know more about what you need to do with: Inventory, Agreements, EORI number, Direct Representation, Excise, VAT, Licenses and more. Or contact one of our specialists if you want to know more about what Brexit means for your imports and exports.
Picture by Jack under CC BY-SA 2.0. Added: For BREXIT.
